Opinion: Who Wins in the Ukraine Crisis?


I previously wrote an article about this, but I feel the need to go over it a little bit more. Recently, the US has finally begun to give a response to the Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border. US and NATO troops in Eastern Europe have been put on alert and hundreds of US mercenary soldiers have traveled to Ukraine to aid in its defense. I mentioned last time that Ukraine was a NATO ally, but failed to make the distinction that it is a partner, not a full member. As a partner, Ukraine can receive NATO aid, but since it is not a full member, NATO countries are not obligated to go to war if Ukraine is invaded. In light of this, Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced that if Ukraine was to suddenly become admitted as a full member of NATO, Russia would consider it an act of war. Many see this as the beginning of WWIII (although there was talk about that too at the beginning of 2020 when the US drone strikes Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, I could have a field day about that topic).

However, I see three ways this can go: Russia doesn’t invade and backs off, Russia invades and the US or NATO gets involved, or Russia invades and NATO does nothing. 

Firstly, a few people say that invasion is not likely, as it really would be the beginning of WWIII, and that would be in no one’s best interest. The reason why Russia can attack Ukraine is because Ukraine gave up their nuclear capability years ago. However, if the US were to actually get involved, and a nuclear response is on the table, it would be mutually assured destruction. I don’t think many people realize how many nuclear warheads both sides have, both left over from the Cold War and currently in production (officially and unofficially). Another possible reason why Russia wouldn’t invade is their economy. Their economy is in shambles right now, and it would not be able to sustain another costly war, especially if foreign armed forces get involved. It might be able to bear a quick war with Ukraine, but not a protracted war with NATO. 

I think the second is a little self explanatory, and I went over a few possibilities when discussing the first possibility.

Finally, there is a possibility that (given our current administration), Ukraine will receive no NATO or foreign help. The US and NATO will say that Ukraine was never a full member and Pontius Pilate their way out of it, washing their hands clean of the blood they let be spilled.

Now to my question. If you don’t know what my question was, read the title. I and many others believe that China is the winner here, not Russia, not NATO, not the US, and most certainly no Ukraine. Slapping more sanctions on Russia will surely drive them more into the hands of the Chinese market. Additionally, if the US does get involved in Ukraine, some of our armed forces will be concentrated in Eastern Europe. This leaves Southeast Asia wide open to Chinese expansion, particularly in Taiwan and Indochina. China is obviously growing more and more aggressive, especially since heat about the outbreak of COVID has mostly been swept under the rug and eclipsed by the situation in Ukraine. 

(As a side note speaking from a student of history, in 1936, Nazi Germany hosted the Olympics and displayed their idealized vision of a new Reich with massive displays of control and nationalism. I think it’s safe to say that China is doing the same in the 2022 Olympics).